MLB Baseball Betting History & Stats
Major League Baseball (MLB) continues to be known as 'The National Pastime' in the United States despite the fact that its popularity was long ago eclipsed by NFL football and, more recently, NASCAR auto racing. Professional baseball in the US dates back to 1876 with the National League beginning play in that year. The American League started in 1901, and this is why you’ll hear the NL and AL referred to as ‘the senior circuit’ and ‘the junior circuit’ respectively to this day.
The two leagues began contesting a championship series annually in 1903 which became known as 'The World Series'. Since then, the two leagues incrementally merged many of their business operations and now both leagues operate under the joint entity of Major League Baseball. . Major League baseball teams play 162 games a year, starting in April and running through early October.
It’s amazing that more people don’t bet on baseball. More importantly, it's surprising that so many otherwise experienced sports gamblers are intimidated by the moneylines, the absence of pointspreads, and the sheer number of wagering opportunities presented by the sport. Just considering sides and total plays on each game, there are nearly 5000 wagering opportunities over the course of the season. That number doesn’t include runline plays, series wagers (which are offered by a growing number of sportsbooks), futures bets, over/under season win totals, etc. Compounding the confusion that the neophyte baseball gambler faces is the abundance of baseball statistics, few of which are geared toward wagering on the sport. While the football handicapper is inundated with publications featuring matchups and pointspread statistics, there are few such resources for the baseball bettor.
This is a shame because baseball is a great moneymaking opportunity for the sports gambler. The overwhelming majority of profitable sports bettors are “grinders”—they focus more on grinding out small profits that add up over the long term rather than trying to make a big killing. There are exceptions, of course, but this is the way that most serious professionals approach sports wagering. Baseball is a great sport for grinding out small profits day after day and week after week for a number of reasons. These include the sheer number of wagering opportunities, and the ability to turn a profit while winning less than 50% of your wagers by betting underdogs. Considering that the best teams lose 1/3 of their games, and the worst teams win a third of theirs it is clear that there are ample opportunities to find value for the astute baseball handicapper.
Another unique component of baseball betting is the minimal importance of home field advantage in the game. Of all major sports, there may be less intrinsic advantage to playing at home in baseball than in any other sport. Granted there are teams that do better in certain ballparks than others, but this is more a function of the design of the ballpark than any sort of true “home field advantage”. Some parks are “pitchers parks” or “hitters parks”, but it works both ways—the opposing pitchers and/or hitters often have the same advantage as the home team’s players. Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued at home, which results in good value on the visitor. Over the course of season, most teams will probably do better at home than on the road but the higher prices you’ll have to pay will negate this fact. In most circumstances “home field advantage” shouldn’t be a consideration in handicapping a game. This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t be aware of a ballpark’s dimensions and tendencies, particularly if you’re playing totals. Just don’t think that the home team has an “edge” simply because they’re in their own ballpark.
Another mistake that beginning baseball betting enthusiasts make is giving too much weight to starting pitching. It’s understandable, of course, since the linesmakers consider the starting pitcher in setting the price for the game. If you pay any attention to baseball, however, you’ll know full well that the quality of starting pitching has reached a state of parity at best, mediocrity bordering on incompetence at worst. There’s only a handful of starting pitchers that can be considered dominant. Everyone else is a cut below and since you’ll never get the big name guys anywhere near your favorite cut off point, don’t worry about them.
One important consideration about the starting pitching matchups, at least during an initial analysis of a game, is whether they’re lefthanded or righthanded. Some teams hit southpaws better than others, and vice versa and this is important to know.
